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Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Ruhaan Singh · Dan Lu · Kshitij Tayal

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presentation: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning
Sun 15 Dec 8:15 a.m. PST — 5:30 p.m. PST

Abstract:

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

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